Tree-based models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks, including time series forecasting. They are increasingly in demand and widely accepted because of their comparatively high level of interpretability. However, many of them suffer from the overfitting problem, which limits their application in real-world decision-making. This problem becomes even more severe in online-forecasting settings where time series observations are incrementally acquired, and the distributions from which they are drawn may keep changing over time. In this context, we propose a novel method for the online selection of tree-based models using the TreeSHAP explainability method in the task of time series forecasting. We start with an arbitrary set of different tree-based models. Then, we outline a performance-based ranking with a coherent design to make TreeSHAP able to specialize the tree-based forecasters across different regions in the input time series. In this framework, adequate model selection is performed online, adaptively following drift detection in the time series. In addition, explainability is supported on three levels, namely online input importance, model selection, and model output explanation.
Matthias Jakobs is a PhD student at TU Dortmund University and works as part of the German Competence Center “Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence", one of only six Research Centers in Germany focused on Machine Learning and AI research. His research revolves around the utilisation of Explainable AI Methods to explain and improve Time Series Forecasting methods under Concept Drift. A special focus of his research is to adaptively select or ensemble models to achieve a more robust prediction. His other research focus is on quantitatively evaluating explanations, specifically Shapley values. He has been a Program Committee member of the “Workshop on Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence” at ECML-PKDD 2022, as well as a co-organiser of the “XAI-TS Workshop” co-located with ECML-PKDD 2023.